Tensions in the Middle East escalated quickly on February 28, 2026 when U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran triggered a rapidly expanding conflict.
Oil prices jumped past $110 per barrel.
Stock markets dropped.
Analysts started warning about possible recession risks.
And naturally, I’m getting the same question from buyers and sellers across Pierce County, Thurston County, and the communities around Joint Base Lewis-McChord:
Should I wait and see what happens before buying or selling a home?
Here’s the honest answer from someone working in this market every day.
For most people, waiting for global stability before making a housing decision rarely works. It usually just delays the inevitable decision while the market keeps moving.
Let’s break down what is actually happening and what it really means locally.
How Global Conflict Actually Impacts Mortgage Rates
Geopolitical events rarely hit the housing market directly. Instead, they affect housing through the broader economy.
The chain reaction usually looks like this:
Conflict → Oil Prices → Inflation → Federal Reserve Policy → Mortgage Rates
When oil prices climb above $110 per barrel, it affects almost everything.
Transportation costs rise.
Manufacturing becomes more expensive.
Food prices increase.
Energy bills go up.
All of those things feed into inflation, which the Federal Reserve monitors closely through the Consumer Price Index.
If inflation stays elevated, the Fed has less room to cut interest rates. When the Fed cannot cut rates, mortgage rates tend to stay higher for longer.
A lot of buyers entering 2026 were hoping mortgage rates would fall back into the low 6 percent range.
This conflict makes that timeline much less predictable.
Here are the three broad possibilities economists are watching right now:
If the conflict de-escalates:
Oil prices fall, inflation cools, and the Fed may regain flexibility within three to six months.
If the conflict continues at the current level:
Oil stays elevated and mortgage rates likely stay around 6.75 percent to 7.25 percent through mid-2026.
If the conflict escalates further:
Oil could spike above $130 and inflation pressure could rise quickly within the next 60 to 90 days.
The reality is that nobody knows exactly how this plays out.
What you can control is your financial readiness and whether your decision is based on your life circumstances instead of global headlines.
Why Global Conflicts Rarely Crash Housing Markets
When major geopolitical events happen, people often assume the housing market will collapse.
Historically, that almost never happens.
Housing markets are driven primarily by:
• housing supply
• population growth
• local employment
• interest rates
Global conflicts influence confidence and interest rates, but they rarely change the fundamental need people have for housing.
For example:
During the Gulf War in 1990, housing slowed briefly but did not collapse.
After 9/11 in 2001, housing remained strong because interest rates fell.
When the Russia-Ukraine conflict began in 2022, housing activity slowed but prices largely held due to low inventory.
The lesson is simple. Global events affect the pace of the market, not the long-term demand for housing.
Why Pierce and Thurston County Behave Differently
National housing headlines do not always apply locally.
Pierce County and Thurston County have one major factor that makes this market behave differently than most areas of Washington.
Joint Base Lewis-McChord.
I call it the JBLM buffer effect.
Military housing demand operates on completely different cycles than civilian housing demand.
PCS relocations happen on military timelines, not economic ones.
Historically, when the United States enters periods of global military engagement, relocation activity often increases rather than slows.
That means continued housing demand in areas like:
• Yelm
• DuPont
• Lakewood
• Spanaway
• Bonney Lake
Markets near major military installations tend to show more price stability during national uncertainty than comparable civilian markets.
That does not mean prices cannot soften. But the floor tends to hold better here because of that built-in demand.
The 30 to 60 Day Buyer Confidence Window
Whenever major global events create uncertainty, housing markets often experience a short pause in buyer activity.
Buyers slow down when:
• markets feel unstable
• investment portfolios decline
• economic headlines turn negative
This hesitation typically shows up within 30 to 60 days of a major event.
That means we are entering a transitional moment right now.
What This Means for Sellers
If you are planning to list soon, you may still catch motivated buyers before hesitation fully sets in.
Homes that are:
• priced correctly
• well prepared
• marketed properly
are still selling.
The homes sitting on the market right now are usually overpriced, poorly presented, or both.
In today’s market, getting your pricing and preparation right from day one is critical.
What This Means for Buyers
If buyer activity slows over the next couple of months, something interesting happens.
Competition drops.
That means fewer bidding wars and more negotiating power.
Buyers may find sellers more willing to offer:
• closing cost credits
• repair credits
• rate buydowns
That kind of leverage did not exist in many situations just 18 months ago.
Sometimes the best buying windows happen during uncertainty, not after it.
The Biggest Mistake Buyers Make During Uncertain Markets
One pattern I see constantly is buyers waiting for the market to “settle down.”
The problem is that by the time the market feels stable again, things have already changed.
Rates move.
Competition returns.
Inventory tightens.
The window closes.
Trying to perfectly time the housing market rarely works. Buyers who move during uncertain periods often end up in stronger negotiating positions than those who wait.
What Buyers in Washington Should Be Doing Right Now
Get Pre-Approved Early
Mortgage rates can move quickly during periods of inflation pressure.
Even a 0.25 percent increase on a $650,000 loan can add roughly $100 to your monthly payment.
That adds up to more than $36,000 over the life of the loan.
Getting pre-approved now gives you clarity about your buying power and allows you to act quickly when the right home appears.
Understand Your Real Monthly Payment
Many buyers focus only on the interest rate and get surprised when the actual payment is higher.
Your real payment includes:
• principal
• interest
• property taxes
• homeowner’s insurance
• HOA dues if applicable
In the $650,000 to $800,000 range across Pierce and Thurston County, that full payment often surprises buyers who only ran a basic calculator.
Understanding the real numbers early keeps you in control of the decision.
Pay Attention to Rate Buydowns
Seller-funded rate buydowns have become one of the most useful negotiation tools available to buyers today.
A 2-1 buydown reduces your rate by:
• 2 percent in year one
• 1 percent in year two
That provides meaningful payment relief during the early years of homeownership.
Many sellers are more willing to fund a buydown than reduce their price.
When structured correctly, it can be a win for both sides.
VA Buyers Have a Real Advantage
If you are using a VA loan, you have one of the strongest financing tools available.
VA loans offer:
• no down payment
• no PMI
• competitive interest rates
In markets around JBLM, sellers are very familiar with VA financing.
The one thing to manage carefully is appraisal timing, since limited appraiser availability can sometimes create delays.
Working with an agent and lender who know this market helps prevent that from becoming an issue.
What Sellers Should Be Doing Right Now
Price Your Home Correctly From the Start
In an uncertain market, buyers become more analytical.
They compare multiple homes and focus heavily on value.
Overpricing is not a strategy.
It simply pushes away your most serious buyers during the first few days your listing is active.
Those first 72 hours on market are when your listing receives the most visibility and the most motivated attention.
Once buyers move on, they rarely come back.
Prepare Your Home Like Buyers Have Options
Buyers in 2026 have far more options than they did in 2021.
They can wait.
They can compare homes.
They can walk away.
Condition and presentation matter more than they have in years.
The homes winning right now are the ones that feel move-in ready and require the least work from the buyer.
That means addressing maintenance issues before listing rather than waiting for the inspection report to expose them.
Consider Offering a Rate Buydown Instead of Cutting Price
Instead of reducing your price by $15,000, consider offering a $10,000 seller-funded rate buydown.
Lowering the buyer’s monthly payment often has a stronger psychological impact than lowering the purchase price.
That shift in affordability can turn a hesitant buyer into someone ready to move forward.
The Bottom Line
The conflict with Iran is influencing oil prices, inflation expectations, and short-term market volatility.
But it does not change the fundamentals that drive housing demand in Pierce and Thurston County.
What it changes:
• the likelihood of near-term rate cuts
• short-term buyer confidence
• broader economic uncertainty
What it does not change:
• local housing supply and demand
• the JBLM military demand buffer
• the strength of VA financing
• the fact that well-priced homes are still selling
The most important factor in your housing decision is not global headlines.
It is your personal timeline, financial readiness, and long-term goals.
If you live in Pierce County or Thurston County and want to talk through what buying or selling actually looks like for your situation, I’m always happy to have that conversation.
Because the right move in this market is not about guessing global events.
It is about making a clear decision based on your numbers and your timing.
TOWNE. Real Estate News 
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